How Much Snow In Central MN Saturday? Depends Who You Ask

It has never been easier to find a weather forecast... but are we sure that's a good thing? Between television, phones, newspapers, radio stations, various apps.. forecasts can be all over the place!

It can sometimes be hard to tell which of the many, many weather outlooks will be the right one.

Case in point: this Saturday's weather in Central Minnesota.

My iPhone's native app currently predicts 8-10" of snow to fall from overnight Friday into Saturday. That's a lot of snow that could impact travel plans and jobs all over the area!

Let's check out my co-host Dave Thomas' Android app... which says 3-5" of snow on Saturday or about half of what the iPhone app says. Interesting.

The Weather Channel's website says 1-3" will fall on Saturday, which is less than 1/3rd of the iPhone prediction!

SCSU Meterologist Bob Weisman is less bullish (at this point) about the Saturday snowfall on the University's website:

Friday Night: Thickening clouds with a chance for light snow or flurries late at night. Low: between +5 and +10. Winds: NE 5 MPH. Wind chill: between -5 and +5. Chance of measurable snowfall: 30%.

Saturday 2/8/2025: Cloudy, light winds, and still cold. A chance for light snow or flurries during the morning. High: between 17 and 23. Winds: NE 5 MPH during the morning, NW 5-10 MPH during the afternoon. Chance of measurable snowfall: 40%.

My conspiracy brain always assumed that the "snowmaggedon" predictions are meant to get us to keep clicking on the forecast leading up to the snow day, but it turns out that is not at all the case.

So why do these forecast vary so widely? It's another case of the simplest answer being the correct one.

It is extremely difficult to predict snowfall amounts. In fact, it is so difficult that the National Weather Service has a 52 page PowerPoint document titled "What Makes Snow Forecasting SO Difficult," explaining why it is so hard to nail down snow prognostications.

The PDF gets right down to the nitty gritty with discussion regarding cloud microphysics, snow crystals, snow ratios and other impacts to forecasting snow like surface temperature, near surface winds, timing, surface compaction and dry air entrainment.

Just scrolling that PDF made me cross-eyed. There are a lot of factors that have to come into play for a snow forecast to come to fruition. As my Meteorology professor said at Inver Hills Community College: "Welcome to Meteorology 101. It's not rocket science... it's much, much harder."